Market Data

The first quarter ushered in a run of healthy growth for the U.S. economy, somewhat unexpected given wide-spread concerns that it could weaken. Job creation and labor force participation are exceeding expectations, wages continue to rise, and consumer sentiment has reached new highs, all boosting the supply-side of the economy. As noted recently by JP Morgan, “So far in 2024, there are signs that U.S. growth is still strong, and that growth in the rest of the world may start to accelerate.” While economists on the whole agree the inflation-surge has passed, opinions are mixed on the extent to which – if at all – rates will be cut this year. Down considerably from its peak, inflation still remains above the Fed’s 2% target, yet a healthy economy likely reduces any sense of urgency to cut rates further. While geopolitical tensions and the upcoming election are likely to cause intermittent volatility, recession risks are relatively low, and an overall positive performance can be expected in the near term.